Is the Wine Market Bottoming Out?

How We Got Here

The recent correction in fine wine has been shaped by a combination of global events. The invasion of Ukraine removed Russian demand from much of the market, while China’s real estate slowdown weakened a key pillar of luxury spending. In the US, uncertainty over tariffs caused buyers to temporarily step back, and more recently, renewed tensions in the Middle East have added another layer of caution. At the same time, rising inflation and higher interest rates reduced risk appetite across luxury.

The result was an unavoidable reset. Prices have adjusted to reflect these challenges, creating a market with improved alignment between buyers and sellers, and more realistic pricing expectations. This combination suggests that the downward trend may be stabilising.

The Market Today

The fine wine market has stabilised through Q1 2026, with trade activity showing healthy momentum – both according to Liv-Ex and RareWine Trading, respectively the largest exchange for fine wine and one of the top fine wine trading companies worldwide. Value and volume are above 2025 averages, reflecting a return of buyer engagement across key regions.

More importantly, buyer behaviour is shifting. In Q1 2026, 62% of trades on Liv-Ex were buyer-initiated, the highest level since Q1 2024. At the same time, the gap between trade prices and quoted market prices has narrowed significantly, from around 8% below market price in mid-2025 to closer to 2.8% today. This shows that buyers are not merely observing the market - they are actively participating, suggesting that buyers are increasingly willing to engage at current levels.

Liv-Ex – Why the Bid:Offer Ratio Matters

At this point, a brief recap on Liv-ex is needed.  Liv-ex is the world’s largest marketplace for fine wine. Like a stock exchange, but dedicated to wine, it provides professional traders with a platform to buy and sell the finest wines in the world. Sellers list wines at a specific asking price (offer), while buyers place purchase bids (bid). When the two meet, a trade occurs.

Since only professionals can operate on the platform, monitoring bid and offer levels is essential for our analysts, who use this information to interpret market sentiment. When buyers are cautious or concerned, bid levels tend to move away from offers. Conversely, when confidence in the market grows, bids move closer to offers. This is why Liv-ex’s bid:offer ratio – which, compares the strength of buying interest to selling interest – is so important.

Over the past few years, geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns were reflected in bids significantly below offers, leading to price corrections. However, since July 2025 (when a final decision on US tariffs was reached and the 200% threat was finally put to rest), the situation has started to shift.

Buyer activity has since picked up with higher bids, and as a result, from September 2025 the Liv-ex 100 Index (which tracks the 100 most sought-after fine wines on the secondary market) recorded six consecutive months of gains. This positive trend is mirrored across all major Liv-Ex indices corresponding to our investment recommendations (Burgundy 150, Champagne 50, and Italy 100).

Despite a cool-off in March, the Liv-Ex 100 Index is now up +2.8% since July 2025, while the broadest Liv-Ex index, the Fine Wine 1000, sits comfortably at +0.2% over the same period.

Notably, between February and March, the bid:offer ratio of the Liv-Ex Fine Wine 100 Index rose from 0.87 to 1.1 – the highest level since October 2022. Similarly, the Burgundy 150’s ratio increased to 0.92, the highest since June 2022, with the strongest ratios found in the high-end range.

What Does Cautious Optimism Look Like?

Like this:

Bottoming out, like recovery, doesn’t happen overnight. This is especially true for wine, which is why it’s essential to remember that this is a long-term investment.

Current evidence suggests that fine wine is moving through the early stages of a bottoming process. Broad declines have slowed, buyer activity is picking up, and key indicators - such as bid:offer ratios and trade price convergence - point to improving confidence.

Importantly, the strongest wines are already showing signs of stability. While the market has yet to accelerate sharply, these foundations create a favourable environment for investors to act strategically.

Timing remains crucial: periods of cautious stability often offer the best opportunities.

Unlike financial instruments, fine wine is a physical asset with intrinsic value. With prices still well below their 2022 peaks, the potential upside appears significantly greater than the potential downside.

A Perspective: Gold Vs Wine

There are several indicators we monitor to assess performance, market sentiment via Liv-ex and RareWine Trading being the most important. However, one interesting pattern we’ve observed over our 20 years trading wine involves gold.

Gold is widely regarded as a safe-haven asset: stable, reliable, and a cushion in times of crisis. It tends to benefit precisely during periods of fear and uncertainty. Fine wine, while also a stable long-term asset, behaves differently. As a luxury collectible, it draws support from confidence, liquidity, and discretionary wealth. In simpler terms: when investors are nervous, they often turn to gold; when sentiment is positive and celebratory, wine tends to come into focus.

This difference in behaviour highlights why wine can be a valuable addition to any portfolio, offering long-term stability and diversification alongside traditional hard assets like gold.

Recent movements in gold may, in this context, be worth noting for investors evaluating the wine market.

RareWine Invest´s Opinion

The early signs of market stabilisation, rising buyer activity, and narrowing trade-to-quote gaps suggest that fine wine is moving through the initial stages of a recovery. While broad acceleration is yet to come, today’s prices offer an attractive entry point for long-term portfolio growth.

For investors willing to act strategically, this extended period of cautious stability presents an attractive window to acquire exceptional wines at favourable levels – particularly because when momentum returns, the most sought-after bottles tend to move quickly…

If you’d like a deeper look at current opportunities, our team is ready to assist. Just email us at invest@rarewine.dk.