Wine Investment in 2025: Tension and Resolution

2025: Tension, Uncertainty, And The First Signs Of Resolution

2025 became the year in which the wine market moved from exhaustion, through nervous tension, toward a welcome sense of relief and resolution. After several years marked by extraordinary events – wars, energy and inflation crises, an aggressive interest rate environment, trade conflicts, and more – that led to sharp price fluctuations and a significant drain on liquidity, the market gradually began to regain its footing in 2025. This did not occur through a dramatic turnaround, but rather through a more subdued and structural normalization, as investors, merchants, and collectors once again began to look ahead.

The year was nevertheless characterized by continued global uncertainty, and with a new U.S. administration in the White House, it quickly became apparent that wine and spirits would become a battleground in the simmering trade war. What later became the symbol of the dispute – “Liberation Day” / “Rose Garden” – resulted, according to the British wine exchange Liv-ex, in an 80% decline in U.S. demand for European wine and spirits.

At the same time, capital markets became increasingly concentrated around a limited number of assets and regions, with U.S. technology stocks under intense scrutiny. For much of the year, this left alternative investments such as wine and spirits outside investors’ immediate focus. As such, 2025 was a year in which investors sought concentration rather than diversification.

Paradoxically, this absence of short-term capital also proved to be a strength. While demand declined in the United States, European buyers returned in earnest – indeed, with a 48% increase in value according to Liv-ex. The wine market continued its necessary adjustment, as pricing, supply, and demand were gradually brought back into better balance.

A Strong Ending To The Year

As the year progressed, the overall picture gradually began to improve. Interest rates stabilized, liquidity improved, and trading activity increased. At RareWine Trading – one of the world’s leading fine wine and spirits trading companies, which also serves as our internal market indicator – we experienced demand levels not seen since 2022. Particularly in the final months of the year, it became clear that the market had moved beyond its most defensive phase. Interest intensified, buying appetite gradually returned, and several key indicators began pointing in a more constructive direction.

Among the clearest signals was the development in bid-to-offer ratios, which rose broadly throughout the autumn. Historically, this movement has been among the earliest indicators of a shift in market balance, where demand increasingly converges with supply. With a year-end in which the leading Liv-ex indices delivered several consecutive months of positive performance for the first time since 2022, and with price charts now pointing upward overall, a sense of resolution has been reached. A growing optimism is starting to become evident.

2025 Performance And Realized Positions

At RareWine Invest, our total portfolio delivered a return of -8.3% in 2025, compared with -4.5% for the broader market as measured by the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000. At first glance, this significantly larger negative return may appear unsatisfactory. However, the deeper decline reflects deliberate choices and positioning in wines and categories which – despite sharp corrections over the past two years – have resulted in a cumulative five-year return of +25.4%, compared with -1.9% for the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000. This long-term strategy has once again proven its merit, even if temporary underperformance is, naturally, a point of frustration.

The market’s ups and downs in recent years only serve to underscore, once again, that wine investment should be regarded as a long-term investment.

In 2025, we realized 2,326 positions with an average return of 0.4%. The negative impact on the year’s overall result stems partly from investors who made strategic disposals to reposition their portfolios, and partly from nervous investors who chose to realize positions despite short holding periods. The latter group in particular weighs heavily on the overall figures, with more than 500 positions sold despite holding periods of just 12–36 months*. We do not recommend investing in wine with a time horizon of less than five to seven years. Excluding all positions – both positive and negative – realized within 12–36 months of purchase, the average return on the remaining realized positions stands at 12.0%.

The total realized return of 30.8% across all of the year’s winning positions is driven by holdings with a duration of more than 48 months. These returns should also be viewed in the context of the fact that Burgundy and Champagne – the categories that account for the largest share of both portfolios and realized positions – have declined by 35–40% since their peak in 2022.

An average realized return of 0.4% across all sold positions stands in stark contrast to 18.7% in 2024, 46.3% in 2023, and 88% in 2022. At the same time, it symbolizes a paradoxical development: an increasing number of positions have been realized each year, despite our repeated and unequivocal recommendations over this period to remain patient and maintain a long-term perspective.

Indices And Comparison With Liv-Ex

Historically, we have used data from the British wine exchange Liv-ex for comparisons and market context. Liv-ex holds the world’s largest dataset of historical wine prices, and while it is an extremely useful tool, it also has certain limitations that underline the importance of not relying on it as the sole source of truth.

Liv-ex indices are calculated in pounds sterling, which has historically introduced distortions during periods of significant fluctuations between the euro and the pound – something you will undoubtedly have experienced if you have invested with us for several years. Trading activity also affects Liv-ex index values: during periods of reduced market activity, the indices rely more heavily on bid-to-offer prices. While this approach works well from a mathematical and financial perspective, it does not necessarily provide a clear reflection of reality, as the figures are then less grounded in actual transactions, which ultimately offer a more accurate representation of true market prices.

Data at RareWine Invest is compiled from multiple external sources, including Liv-ex and respected auction houses, but is also based on transactions that have been executed. In a period of reduced global trading activity (which diminishes the robustness of Liv-ex data) combined with a historically high level of disposals at RareWine Invest – frequently testing price formation and thereby refining our internal data against real market conditions –structural differences between Liv-ex data and our own data naturally emerge.

This is technical, but nonetheless relevant for understanding the sections that follow.

Burgundy (-9.4%)

In 2025, Burgundy continued the consolidation phase that emerged in the wake of the extraordinary price increases seen in the years leading up to 2022. After several years of strong value appreciation, the market has been characterized by a necessary recalibration, with prices gradually settling at more sustainable levels. According to Liv-ex, the Burgundy 150 Index declined by -4.8% in 2025, compared with -9.4% at RareWine Invest. In addition to the structural fluctuations described in the previous section, this difference – as mentioned earlier – reflects the fact that the wines we typically focus on are also those that faced the greatest headwinds in 2025, while simultaneously being the very wines that have enabled us to outperform the market over many years.

Among the 20 best-performing wines of 2025, all of which recorded price increases between 12% and 29%, we find renowned names such as Domaine Leroy, d’Auvenay, and Coche-Dury, alongside smaller producers including Perrot-Minot, Bruno Colin, and Génot-Boulanger. It is also worth noting that half of the wines in Burgundy’s top 20 are white wines.

We continue to maintain strong buy recommendations for Burgundy, as the price declines of recent years have created highly attractive acquisition opportunities in wines that for many years were astronomically expensive – if they could be sourced at all.

Despite several years of headwinds, Burgundy remains an attractive category. Since 2004, the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 has delivered a return of 507%, and looking ahead, supply is expected to decline further due to weather- and climate-related challenges, while demand for fine wine is expected to continue rising.

Champagne (-7.0%)

At RareWine Invest, many parallels can be drawn between the performance of Burgundy and Champagne in 2025. The overall Champagne portfolio at RareWine Invest declined by 7%, compared with a 4.2% decline in the Liv-ex Champagne 50. The story here is the same: the strategy that in recent years has contributed to strong market outperformance has included some of the wines that came under the greatest pressure during the challenging market conditions of 2025.

More recent vintages with ample availability struggled, while older, highly regarded vintages generally performed better. Among the 20 best-performing Champagnes in 2025 under the management of RareWine Invest – all of which rose by 9–22% – no fewer than 11 are from the now-iconic 2008 vintage.

Within the Liv-ex universe, the Champagne 50 Index declined more moderately over the year, but the overall trend was one of stabilization rather than further pressure. Particularly in the second half of the year, price development began to level off, and toward year-end the first signs of improving momentum became visible.

A key explanation for Champagne’s relative resilience is the category’s liquidity and consistent consumption. However, 2025 also put this to the test: U.S. demand was virtually eliminated, and the year saw industry giants such as Moët, Roederer, and Bollinger release new prestige cuvées that reached the market in 2025. While it is not unusual for the release of a new prestige cuvée to exert short-term downward pressure on prices due to temporary oversupply, the coincidence of market conditions and the volume of major releases evokes the notion of a “perfect storm.”

Liv-ex data points to rising trading activity – particularly among the established Grandes Marques – where regular consumption helps absorb supply and support price formation in areas where availability has been constrained.

Developments in bid-to-offer ratios reinforce this picture. Champagne was among the first categories in which demand once again began to converge with supply, and several indicators reached levels last seen under more constructive market conditions. This suggests that buyers increasingly viewed price levels as attractive – especially for older, well-documented vintages.

Italy (-9.2%)

With a reported decline of 9.2%, Italian wines – which have otherwise been standard-bearers of stability and resilience in difficult times – may appear to have faltered. This, however, is a conclusion that requires nuance, as the overall picture for the category is skewed by portfolio weighting.

At RareWine Invest, our recommendations are targeted and our strategy disciplined. This means, for example, that Sassicaia represents a significant share of the overall portfolio. When vintages such as 2021 or 2018 come under pressure and undergo correction, as was the case in 2025, the heavy weighting of such positions pulls down the average across the entire category. That said, the underlying reality remains that both wines in this example are still trading at prices higher than their original release levels, despite the declines. Consequently, a -9.2% performance compared with a -1.7% decline in the Liv-ex Italy 100 should be interpreted with a degree of caution.

From a broader perspective, 2025 – consistent with the trend we have emphasized for several years – demonstrated that buyer interest has become increasingly concentrated around the most established Italian appellations, particularly Tuscany and selected parts of Piedmont. The combination of limited supply, growing international recognition, and still-attractive price levels relative to France’s top regions has made Italian wine a natural focal point for wine enthusiasts worldwide.

Stripping out the impact of heavily weighted large positions from RareWine Invest’s Italian portfolio, 2025 reaffirmed Italy’s position as a stable and attractive component of a diversified wine portfolio. With more subdued volatility, strong fundamentals, and a continued unrealized pricing potential, Italy stands out as a region exceptionally well positioned as the market moves into its next phase.

Bordeaux (-4.22%)

While Bordeaux remains a stronghold of exceptional drinking experiences, this once-glorious region continues to find itself caught in a self-inflicted paradox. While we consider En Primeur offerings to be outright uninvestable, we continue to urge caution when approaching the region as a whole.

At RareWine Invest, the moderate decline can largely be attributed to the general condition of the wine market, which—unsurprisingly—also affected Bordeaux. By comparison, the Liv-ex Bordeaux 500 fell by 6.7% in 2025.

From a broader perspective, Bordeaux’s share of total trading volume on Liv-ex declined once again in 2025, now standing at 35.5% – a drop of more than 50% over the past ten years.

This year’s En Primeur campaign has, to a large extent, appeared to be a failure, with producers struggling to attract interest despite reduced release prices in several cases.

Large and growing surplus inventories, historically high release prices, and a prolonged period of subdued consumption have continued to exert pressure on price formation. As a result, older vintages can increasingly be acquired at price levels comparable to those of newer releases.

For investors, this development underscores the importance of selectivity and discipline. Bordeaux remains a region of iconic wines and global recognition, but realizing its investment potential requires precisely the right wines from precisely the right vintages – because it is within the true icons that the real value is to be found.

Rest Of The World (-9.6%)

The somewhat arbitrary category “Rest of the World” – also referred to as “best of the rest” –encompasses whisky and wine regions outside the classical core regions. None of these segments escaped the uncertainty of 2025, and Scotch whisky in particular was hit hard, as the category became a very tangible instrument in the tariff disputes between the EU and the United States.

Overall performance within the category was characterized by a lack of liquidity in the market, which put downward pressure on valuations. This should, however, be viewed in the context that whisky remains one of the strongest-performing assets within the “collectables” asset class, having delivered a 191.4% return over the past ten years according to Knight Frank’s The Wealth Report.

The fundamental characteristics of the category remain unchanged, and it should still be regarded as a diversifying element within a broader investment portfolio. The current market phase also clearly illustrates that selectivity and discipline are essential. For investors with a long-term perspective, the segment continues to offer access to niche opportunities and alternative growth stories.

RareWine Invest’s Opinion

2025 marks an important turning point for the wine investment market – not because prices have yet staged a decisive rebound, but because the underlying conditions for a more constructive development are once again in place. The market has moved away from its most pressured phase, and prices have increasingly stabilized – particularly in the most liquid segments.

The most significant shift, however, has taken place beneath the surface. Trading activity increased markedly throughout the year, and activity is a critical prerequisite for sustained price appreciation in a market such as fine wine. Historically, periods of rising turnover and improving bid-to-offer ratios have served as early indicators of subsequent positive price performance. These signals became clearly visible toward the end of 2025 – read much more about this in our autumn analysis, The Wine Market in Recovery.

We also recognize this trend internally at RareWine Trading, where demand and turnover in the second half of the year reached levels not seen since 2022. In fact, RareWine Trading recorded an index level of 120 in the most recent half-year compared with the preceding year – despite lower prices. In other words, a significantly higher number of bottles were traded. As more transactions are completed and more buyers re-engage actively with the market, a healthier interaction between supply and demand emerges. In our case, the increase in turnover is driven by market participants similar to ourselves – other wine merchants and wholesalers – who have customers actively demanding products and therefore increasing their own purchasing.

It is precisely this interaction that, over time, drives price formation in the market for fine wine and rare spirits.

At the same time, the price corrections of recent years have created a more attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking compelling acquisition opportunities. Many iconic wines are now trading at levels that, in a historical context, appear almost unprecedented, with risk increasingly balanced by long-term upside potential. The combination of stabilized prices, rising trading activity, and structurally constrained supply forms a solid foundation for the next phase of the market’s development.

One of the categories that will be particularly interesting to watch in 2026 is the new 2024 vintage from Burgundy. For the first time in several years, we will once again see extremely limited releases from this region. In terms of volume, 2023 may turn out to be one of the largest vintages we have seen in recent times, while 2024 is likely to be among the smallest.

Overall, we do not expect a linear or dramatic turnaround in the short term. However, 2025 demonstrated that the market is once again in motion – driven by genuine demand. For investors with patience and a long-term perspective, the current phase presents a constructive opportunity to position oneself. Wine remains a long-term asset class, and history has repeatedly shown that periods of recalibration often lay the foundation for the strongest returns.