The Fine Wine Market: From Bottoming Out to Building Momentum

The Trend Continues

In April, we asked whether the fine wine market was bottoming out (original article here). Three months on, the data continues to point in the same direction – cautiously, but consistently.

The recovery trajectory we identified in Q1 2026 has not reversed. Liv-ex data for Q2 2026 and July confirm that the stabilisation we flagged earlier this year has legs – and is gradually broadening across regions, buyer geographies and wine categories.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us

When we wrote our April analysis, buyer-initiated trades on Liv-ex stood at 62% – the highest since Q1 2024. In July, that figure stood at 64%, well above the 2025 average of 58% – and the most recent weekly data suggests it has since climbed further to 67%. In practical terms, this means buyers are increasingly seeking out wines rather than waiting for sellers to approach them.

The headline number from July is hard to ignore: trade on Liv-ex hit its highest level in over a year, with both value and volume up substantially on the same month in 2025 – +38% and +36% respectively. The gap between trade prices and quoted market prices has also continued to narrow, another sign that buyers and sellers are finding common ground more readily than before.

Also very importantly, in Q2 purchasing rose across every major buying geography – notably, including during peak European summer holidays, when markets are traditionally slow due to heat and holidays.

The fine wine market gaining momentum in the middle of summer, when many market participants are away, is not what a fragile recovery looks like.

A Broader Recovery Across Regions

In April, we highlighted improving trends across the Liv-Ex indices that best reflect our investment recommendations (Burgundy 150, Champagne 50 and Italy 100). Q2 data reinforces this picture.

Over the past 12 months, Italy 100 leads with a gain of approximately +2.9%, followed by Champagne 50 at around +2.6%, and Burgundy 150 at approximately +1.9%. The Fine Wine 1000 – the broadest measure of the market – is also positive over the same period.

The centre of our consistent recommendation, Burgundy, has given us some further good news: the Burgundy 150's bid:offer ratio is approaching 1, driven by buyers returning to the market rather than by sellers lowering their asks. Reaching 1 would mean that buying interest and selling interest are perfectly balanced – a level last seen in 2022, and a strong indicator that the market has found equilibrium at current price levels.

On the other hand, Bordeaux – a region where we have long advised caution – remains the one major region yet to turn convincingly positive. Bordeaux now accounts for just 31.4% of year-to-date trade value, the lowest level on record. There are pockets of strength – the 2019s and recently re-scored 2016s have seen rising prices, while Petrus and other top names have also been actively changing hands – but the broader picture remains one of excess supply and subdued demand.

Perhaps the most striking regional development is what happened in July: Burgundy claimed the top spot by trade value ahead of Bordeaux – something that has not happened since 2022, when Burgundy prices were considerably higher than they are today. Italy also made history in July, leading the entire market by volume – only the second time this has ever occurred. A meaningful shift in where serious buyers are putting their money.

Within the Fine Wine 1000, the Q2 picture was mixed: more component vintages fell than rose. But the wines that appreciated did so by more than the wines that declined lost – risers averaged around +5%, fallers around -4%. It is worth noting that Bordeaux is the main drag, accounting for a disproportionate share of the fallers – which is consistent with our long-held view that the region requires a more selective approach than others.

The Return of US (and Asian?) Buyers

One of the most significant developments of 2026 has been the continued return of US buyers to the fine wine market. Having stepped back during the tariff uncertainty of 2025, US buyers now account for a growing share of purchase value (US buying in July was up 163% compared to July 2025) – and crucially, they are buying at or above market price. This is a meaningful signal. When buyers are willing to pay market price rather than negotiating aggressively downward, it reflects genuine conviction in current valuations.

Asian buying has also shown encouraging signs, with purchase value doubling in the most recent weekly data – a welcome signal after shipping costs rose sharply following the start of the Iran War.

Back Vintages vs Recent Vintages

One trend we have long noted – and capitalised on – is the divergence between older back vintages and more recent releases, and we expect it to persist. On Liv-Ex, across regions, pre-2017 wines have generally been more resilient, finding their floor earlier and showing price stability sooner. Wines that combine trade price stability, genuine liquidity and a healthy demand-to-supply balance remain the most compelling opportunities.

This is a market that rewards knowledge, selectivity and patience – which is precisely the environment we have been built for.

RareWine Invest's Opinion

When we wrote in April that "timing remains crucial: periods of cautious stability often offer the best opportunities," we meant it. The data since then has not changed that view – it has strengthened it.

The fine wine market is not yet in full recovery mode. Caution remains the dominant mood among professional market participants. But the direction of travel is clear, and the foundations being laid today are the kind that tend to support meaningful price appreciation over a long investment horizon.

For investors who have been waiting for the right moment to enter or add to a fine wine portfolio, the window of attractive valuations relative to long-term potential remains open – but the data suggests the opportunity to acquire outstanding wines below value may be closing.

If you would like to discuss current opportunities in more detail, our team is ready to help. Reach out at invest@rarewine.dk.